INTERVIEW Jüdische Allgemeine Germany: “The Iranian regime will fall in the foreseeable future”

Israel and the US have been attacking Iran from the air since Saturday. Michael Spaney explains why the mullahs' rule is weaker than ever before and what a regime change might look like.

By Joshua Schultheis March 3, 2026, 11:30 a.m. 

 

Mr. Spaney, why did the US and Israel strike against the Iranian regime last Saturday

Several media reports and statements by former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett suggest that Iran had begun to hide its nuclear facilities even deeper in the mountains than before. This would make them inaccessible even to American bunker busters. At the same time, the pace of construction of ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel was increased. Security sources say that by June 2025, Iran had fired half of its approximately 3,000 missiles and had since increased its arsenal to 2,500 missiles. With this increase in capacity, any later intervention would have been possible only at the cost of many more Israeli casualties. Israel had to eliminate this existential threat sooner or later and has now decided to do so in order to minimize the number of Israeli deaths. After promising help to the protesters and deploying military forces, Trump could no longer negotiate a bad deal that did not eliminate the nuclear threat without losing face.

 

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have made it clear that, in addition to other goals, they want to end the regime in Iran in their war against the country. Are there already signs that the Islamist leadership is faltering?

The Iranian regime has never been as weak as it is today. In January, it massacred its own population, ultimately generating a death wish among the protesters rather than resignation, as can be seen from the resurgence of protests. Its proxy network, which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, has been significantly weakened since October 7, 2023. The 12-day war in June 2025 exposed its vulnerability, and now, after just two days, Israeli and US airstrikes have partially decapitated the regime and taken out most of its air defenses. This clears the way for several weeks of heavy bombing, not only of Iran's missile program and other offensive capabilities, but above all of the institutions and units responsible for repression within Iran, such as the Revolutionary Guards, the police, and the secret services. This underpins Netanyahu and Trump's appeals to the Iranian people to seize the opportunity after the bombing and then depose the regime when it is on the ground as a result of the air strikes.

 

Was the attack on Iran too late for the protest movement in the country?

There will be uprisings once the large-scale bombing has ended. The opposition will seize the opportunity presented by the weakening of the regime. Such an opportunity will not arise again in the foreseeable future. The people of Iran know this.

 

In recent years, the mullah regime has proven to be more stable than many had believed. Why should it be any different this time?

The circumstances are completely different this time. I have already mentioned the greatly weakened axis of resistance of the proxies. The motivation of the Iranian population is different today. They know that the economic misery will not end as long as the mullahs are in power. In other words, absolute economic despair is added to the motivation to oppose the regime. In addition, this time there seems to be an opposition figure in the form of the Shah's son, Reza Pahlavi, behind whom a large number of opponents of the regime can rally. Chamenei has certainly already appointed successors for many leading positions in Iran, but according to Trump, signs of dissent are already visible. And the Israeli and US secret services have infiltrated the regime's security forces and can track their communications. Otherwise, it would not be possible to bomb the exact locations of the leadership. As a result, the regime's henchmen can only communicate to a limited extent. This obviously leads to disruptions in the chain of command and chaos.

 

Experts repeatedly point out that air strikes alone are not enough to remove a regime. What forces are there on the ground that could wrest power from the mullahs? Are there any indications that ethnic minorities such as the Kurds in Iran are currently being armed?

It is true that this is an experiment with an open outcome. Every war has its uncertainties. But the conditions in Iran today are different from those that prevailed during the Western interventions in Libya or Iraq, for example. The population is much more united in its anti-regime stance and has been fighting against repression for decades, suffering heavy casualties. Surveys repeatedly show that the majority of Iranians have a pro-Western attitude. This can currently be seen in the dances of joy at the news of Khamenei's death. A popular uprising in Iran must, of course, be materially supported. Smuggling routes already exist, for example for Starlink terminals and light weapons. This could be expanded and is certainly being considered by the actors involved. Some Kurds and Baloch are already armed, as incidents in the past have shown. Whether this will be enough to break the regime's superiority depends on its weakening by Israel and the US and the scaling up of arms deliveries.

 

Is Iran facing the threat of years of civil war, as in Syria, for example?

Such a scenario cannot be ruled out. But is it likely? I don't think so. 80 to 90 percent of the population rejects the regime. They have suffered enough. As soon as the apparatus of repression is defeated with outside help, the Iranian people will take their self-determination into their own hands.

 

From an Israeli-American perspective, what would be the best-case scenario for the coming weeks?

A large-scale defection of high-ranking Iranian forces would be helpful in bringing the war to a swift end. If this does not happen, the ground must be prepared so that the opposition forces can gain power after the military intervention and elect their own leadership after a transition period. If Iran takes a democratic turn, it is even conceivable that accession to the Abraham Accords is not out of the question. Of course, this is a dream scenario. But in any case, it all depends on the success of regime change. I believe that even if it does not happen now, it will happen sooner or later. The uprising in Iran will not stop.

 

And the worst-case scenario? Is it conceivable that the regime in Tehran will remain in power and become even more repressive internally and aggressive externally in the future?

I have always believed that the regime can only remain in power if Trump makes a bad deal with the mullahs. This seems to be off the table. He does not want to be seen as Obama and ignore his own red lines. Regarding the predictions of some security experts that a military dictatorship of the Revolutionary Guards would now follow, I can only say that, according to all statements from Israel and the US, these very forces are now under heavy fire. Let's wait another week or two. Only then will it be possible to seriously assess whether this weakening is successful.

 

US President Trump claims that the remaining Iranian leadership now wants to negotiate. Is there still any room for diplomacy after the events of the past few days?

Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who is now obviously the most powerful figure in Iran, withdrew this offer on Monday. There is clearly already chaos within the Iranian leadership. We should continue to exploit this. Perhaps we are further along than we think. I am very hopeful that the Iranian regime will fall in the foreseeable future.

 

The questions to the director of the Mideast Freedom Forum Berlin were asked by Joshua Schultheis.